James P. Scanlan, Attorney at Law

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Henrico County (VA) Disparities

(November 19, 2014)

Prefatory note:  This subpage is related to the California Disparities, Maryland Disparities, Beaverton, OR Disparities, Los Angeles SWPBS, Denver Disparities, Minneapolis Disparities, Montgomery County, MD Disparities, St. Paul Disparities, DOE Equity Report, and the Suburban Disparities subpages of the Discipline Disparities page of jpscanlan.com.  The former eight subpages address studies showing that when discipline rates were reduced in the referenced jurisdictions, relative racial/ethnic differences in discipline rates increased.  The ninth subpage addresses a Department of Education study showing that relative differences in expulsions are smaller in districts with zero tolerance policies than in districts without zero tolerance policies.  The tenth subpage  addresses the fact that relative racial differences in discipline rates tend to be greater in suburbs than in central cities simply because discipline rates tend to be lower in suburbs and in central cities.

Useful background reading for this page include “Misunderstanding of Statistics Leads to Misguided Law Enforcement Policies, ” Amstat News  (Dec. 2012), “The Paradox of Lowering Standards,” Baltimore Sun (Aug. 5, 2013), “Things government doesn’t know about racial disparities,” The Hill (Jan. 28, 2014), and “Race and Mortality Revisited,” Society (July/August 2014).  All address the fact that contrary to the view promoted by the Departments of Education and Justice that reducing discipline rates will tend to reduce racial and ethnic differences in discipline rates, reducing discipline rates will tend to increase relative racial differences in discipline rates (though reduce relative differences in rates off avoiding discipline).  My recent “The Perverse Enforcement of Fair Lending Law,” Mortgage Banking (May 2014) addressed the same issue in the lending context.  The statistical issues have also been recently addressed in my November 17, 2014 amicus curiae brief in Texas Department of Housing and Community Development, et al. v.  The Inclusive Communities Project, Inc., Supreme Court No. 13-1731.

***

On November 6, 2014 the Henrico, County, VA School District issued Discipline Update discussing recent reductions in public school suspensions.  The report showed that out-of-school suspensions were reduced from 10,161 in 2009-10 to 6,538 in 2013-14.   The report revealed the standard situation where reductions in suspensions were accompanied by increased relative differences in suspension rates.  Such pattern can be derived from information on the fifth page of the report (counting the cover), which shows that the total number of suspensions were reduced by 33% for African Americans and 40% for whites.  That means that,  absent dramatic changes in student racial composition, the relative difference in suspension rates would have increased. 

In order to know whether the reduction was accompanied by an increase or decrease in the strength of the forces causing African American and white rates to differ (according to the method described in “Race and Mortality Revisited” and the Supreme Court brief, one would need to know the actual rates of the groups before and after the reduction.  While the report states that African Americans were 4.9 times as likely[i] as students of other races to be suspended, but does not give the actually rates.  See the Argument Section I.B of the Supreme Court brief.

The report does appear to indicate that the strength of the forces causing the suspension rates of students with disabilities (SWD) and without disabilities (non-SWD) to differ decreased to an unknown degree between the 2012-13 and 2013-14 school years.  The report states that in 2012-13 SWD) were 4.67 times as likely to be suspended for 10+ days as non-SWD.  It also states that in 2013-14, SWD comprised 8% of total students and 24.8% of suspended students and that SWD were 3 times as likely to be suspended as non-SWD.  Possibly the 3 multiplier is based on the fact that 24.8 is approximately 3 times 8.  But those figures actually mean that the SWD rate was 3.79 times the non-SWD rates. 

Still, inasmuch as the ratio declined from 4.67 to 3.79 during a period of overall declines (which is contrary to the usual pattern) one can infer that the forces causing the suspensions rates of SWD and non-SWD to differ decline somewhat. But without the actual rates, it is not possible to appraise the size of the decline. 



[i]  The report states “4.9 times more likely,” but I assume it means “as likely.”  See the Times Higher subpage of the Vignettes page.